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- newsletter #17
newsletter #17
News in the sports and IT industry!
Sportsjobs online
Featured jobs, trends and recommendations to work in the sports industry.
New jobs is Sports
Lots of open positions!
This week we got a few high profile jobs in addition to the great pool we have.
And we just added Remote opportunities for Data Science, Data Engineering and Machine Learning is the USA.
Content You Might Like
This week at Carnegie Mellon they have reimplemented the Glickman and Stern’s state-space model for the NFL using Bayesian Statistics, more specifically using STAN in R and with updated data.
If you want to know more about STAN you can google it but I can provide more information if you reply to this email asking for it.
This pointed back to a previous blog from a few years ago (for the NHL) that has a really detailed explanation on what this analysis aims to.
You can see that this kind of analysis translates between sports without problem.
In this case, the model tries to estimate team strength during the season using betting market numbers.
Why betting market numbers?
“Moreso than wins and losses or point differential, perhaps the best game-level metric of team strength comes not in what happens during the game, but what’s known before the game begins. Indeed, it’s been shown time and again that there’s no better way to judge models in sports than to compare to betting market data. “
Betting data is THE source for actual winning probabilities. Yes, there are times they miscalculate and people says they can beat the Vegas line, but there is a reason it’s a multimillion industry and it’s because they price their odds accurately more often than not.
You can leverage that and let them work for you, using their estimates for any of your analysis.
Of course, if you want to beat them you will need to get your own estimates.
Coming back to the blog post, despite being a bit complex at first sight, I think it’s a really nice and straightforward example of an analysis you could do for your favorite sport and a good addition to your portfolio. It’s not usual and bring value. Also being not so simple you can show you are not doing only the minimum effort.
If the math or code is too much for you you will be able to understand the idea and if you have more experience you can implement it.
As always, if you have any doubt I’ll try to help and we can cover things more in detail.
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